A tipsheet for the Madness

Don't take it to the bank (or the track) but here are some NCAA tendencies.

If you’re at the racetrack with business on your mind, the Daily Racing Form is standard equipment. It has past performances, workout data, speed figures, everything you need to develop severe dizziness, headaches and a strange emptiness where your money clip used to be.

Kenpom.com, developed by Ken Pomeroy, is the Racing Form of college basketball as we stand six days from Selection Sunday. Things that you never dreamed could be calculated are available with just a couple of clicks. Will all that numerical confetti tell you who will reach the Final Four? Well, none of the past six NCAA champs have ranked lower than sixth on Kenpom’s pre-tournament list, and the top-ranked team has reached the championship game three times, winning once (Virginia, 2019). Of those 12 finalists, only North Carolina last season (29th) was outside the top ten, although a 44th-ranked UCLA team made the 2021 Final Four.

Today’s top four in Kenpom consists of Houston, UCLA, Alabama and Connecticut. But the field is flat, and everyone has developed a cough along the way. Here’s a very amateurish guide to the field, with post time a long way off, and no scratches expected.

HORSES

UCLA (27-4, 2nd in KenPom)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 8-4, 16-4.

Strengths: The Bruins are second in defensive efficiency and do not use the 3-pointer as their lifeblood. Their losses are to Illinois, Baylor, Arizona and USC, all probable tournament teams. Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell and David Singleton have played 413 UCLA games and started 281, but there’s also some youthful verve supplied by Adem Bona and Amari Bailey. They also have a 10-game winning streak in which they’ve allowed 70 points only twice.

Questions: Mick Cronin seems to be shortening his bench as he did last March, when UCLA couldn’t exploit its depth advantage over North Carolina and lost in the Sweet 16. Occasionally the ball sticks in UCLA’s offense, particularly when it gets to Jaquez, who was the Pac-12’s best player. Plus, the Pac-12 has not exactly been a Rubik’s Cube this year.

Prospects: UCLA has won only one NCAA title in 48 years, but it believes in its formula, which boils down to Cincinnati-style panache mixed with McDonald’s All-Star talent, and it might be the best-connected club in college basketball. Regardless of what happens in the Pac-12 tournament, they bring fewer variables than anyone.

KANSAS (25-6, 9th in KenPom)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 15-6, 21-6.

Strengths: Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Harris were there for the championship run in 2022, and KU has added freshman shooter Gradey Dick, a possible lottery draft. The Jayhawks have taken on all comers and won the Big 12, easily the nation’s toughest conference. Defense is their dominant trait.

Questions: Did that Big 12 grind exhaust Kansas, which doesn’t boast a great bench, and wouldn’t it maybe be a good idea to punt a game in the league tournament?

Prospects: Kansas’ fate depends entirely on matchups, and a dominant big man could be trouble. Otherwise, this is a team with great spurtabiity and lots of good March memories.

HOUSTON (29-2, 1st in KenPom)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 4-1, 12-1.

Strengths: The Cougars lead Division I in blocked shot percentage and are second in field goal percentage defense. They have not lost a road or neutral-site game all season. They have a possible lottery player in freshman Jarace Walker and one of the best all-around seniors in Marcus Sasser. They also made the Final Four in 2021 and got to the regional finals last year.

Questions: The American Athletic isn’t the most potent conference, and Houston needed a buzzer shot to beat Memphis Saturday. Like most teams they’re in trouble when their shooting deserts them.

Prospects: Only South Florida and UCF broke the 70-point barrier against the Cougars, who are loaded with interchangeable defenders. It’s hard to bet against them, but the Cougars don’t want a come-from-behind scenario.

ALABAMA (26-5, 3rd in KenPom)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 9-5, 16-5.

Strengths: They’re the second fastest-playing team in the game and they have the best freshman and maybe the most influential player in Brandon Miller. They also lead college basketball in defense against 2-point shots. Alabama has some eye-popping wins, like a six-pointer at Houston, a 101-44 number on Vanderbilt and a 26-pointer over Kentucky, and an early four-overtime win over North Carolina showed its resolve. Javon Quinerly, 24, tilts games when he comes off the bench.

Questions: There are also head-scratching losses here, like a 24-pointer to Oklahoma. Alabama can be too 3-point-dependent at times. Its players will have to deal with, or deflect, questions about ex-teammate Darius Miles, who is charged with murder, and Miller’s involvement, along with coach Nate Oats’ maladroit statements.

Prospects: The Tide won its first 12 SEC games and can sustain a long run as well as anyone, and it has good options when it really needs a bucket. But any poor shooting night could send Alabama home.

MARQUETTE (25-6, 13th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 6-5, 11-5.

Strengths: Marquette leads Division I in 2-point percentage and has a plus 7.7 turnover margin. Tyler Kolek is a real point guard. He’s visionary, strong and just cocky enough. Oso Ighodaro is a skilled big man. Marquette won 17 of 20 Big East games after a difficult non-conference schedule. Two of its losses were in overtime and only one (at UConn) wasn’t close.

Questions: The Eagles’ opponents shoot almost 36 percent from 3-point land, and Marquette isn’t the best rebounding team, on either board. It was 68th in defensive efficiency. Topping 90 points in six different Big East teams was encouraging, but giving up 94 to St. John’s was not.

Prospects: Shaka Smart left Texas before his parking space was reassigned, and he wound up re-establishing his career. He took Virginia Commonwealth to a Final Four with an all-out press. Taking Marquette with a high-functioning offense would be far more believable than that.

TEXAS (23-8, 8th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 11-8, 15-8.

Strengths: Texas ranks sixth nationally in Division 1 experience, and Marcus Carr (Minnesota), Tyrese Hunter (Iowa State) and Timmy Allen (Utah) were major players in their previous stops. The Longhorns cause turnovers and move the ball well, and beat Gonzaga and Creighton while playing a middling non-conference schedule.

Questions: They weren’t very sharp down the stretch, although that could have been Big 12 fatigue, and they did jolt Kansas in the regular-season finale. Size is not a plus for them, especially if 6-foot-9 shot-blocker Dylan Disu runs into foul trouble.

Prospects: Rodney Terry, formerly a head coach at Fresno State and UTEP, made a strong case for becoming the fulltime coach after Texas fired Chris Beard. Remember, this is the school that fired Rick Barnes after his annual NCAA appearances and allowed him to take his orange wardrobe to Tennessee. A few matchup breaks could get the Longhorns through.

STRETCH RUNNERS

TEXAS A&M (23-8, 24th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams: 6-5, 10-6.

Strengths: A&M was 6-5 on Dec. 20 after a home loss to Wofford, then won 15 of 18 in the SEC and polished it off by beating Alabama. The Aggies are first nationally in percentage of points through free throw attempts, and four of them have hoisted 100 or more. The headline player and most reliable 3-point source is guard Wade Taylor.

Questions: The Aggies have almost as many turnovers as assists, and they are just short of the magic 33 percent mark for 3-point shooting.

Prospects: Beware the hot team. The Aggies got to the finals of the SEC tournament last year and, as they say in that league, it would just Mean More to them to win it this time.

DUKE (23-8, 31st in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams: 3-7, 10-8.

Strengths: The Blue Devils lead Division I in average height, with 7-footers Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively serving as Messrs. Outside and Inside, and with Tyrese Proctor looming at 6-foot-5 on the perimeter. They rank 27th in blocked shot percentage and 27th in defensive efficiency, which was the emphasis by new coach (and former point guard on an NCAA title team) Jon Scheyer. Duke is seventh in offensive rebounding percentage.

Questions: The shooting comes and goes from the Blue Devils’ guards, and they rank 292nd in Division 1 experience, although a difficult schedule may have sped up that process.

Prospects: Duke rolls into the ACC tournament with six consecutive wins and, despite horrid losses to N.C. State and Miami, did beat Xavier and Iowa in early play. There’s no denying the talent here, or the matchup difficulties they bring.

KANSAS STATE (23-8. 18th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 9-7, 13-8.

Strengths: Kansas State ranks 14th in defensive efficiency and has two All Big 12 players, Keyontae Johnson and 5-foot-8 point man Markquis Nowell. They have a heavy New York presence, and the brashness therein. They’re also 11th in defensive 3-point percentage and seventh in assists per field goal, indicative of ball movement. And they won at Texas and at Baylor early in Big 12 season.

Questions: Nowell plays 89.7 percent of KSU’s minutes, 29th in the country. No player ranked ahead of him in that statistic will be in the NCAA tournament, barring major upsets this week. The Wildcats also have turnover-itis at times, brought on by playing too fast.

Prospects: First-year coach Jerome Tang was an inspired choice. Two reasons to watch the Wildcats: They’re 4-0 in overtime and they beat everyone else in the Big 12 at least once.

GONZAGA (26-5, 10th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 5-4. 10-4.

Strengths: As usual, the Bulldogs are No. 1 in offensive efficiency and they still have Drew Timme, the nation’s most versatile and accomplished center. They don’t turn it over and they don’t live and die with 3-pointers, although Malachi Smith makes half of his, and Julian Strawther makes over 40 percent. They beat Alabama and Xavier in their typically rugged preseason but also tied for first place in a much tougher WCC.

Questions: Are they good enough defensively? Opponents shoot 35.1 percent from three. Teams that hoard the ball might give them trouble, and they were bullied by Purdue and Texas.

Prospects: The eternal question is whether the Bulldogs were softened by their conference, but that’s not really a issue this year. With far less pressure, maybe this is the year Mark Few’s team — and probably his sixth or seventh-best team — holds the big trophy at last.

DARK HORSES

SAINT MARY’S (25-6, 7th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 2-2, 8-4.

Strengths: The Gael-force winds of the St. Mary’s defense posted the 11th best defensive percentage against 2-point shots. Opponents topped 70 points in only four WCC games. Only Liberty gives up fewer offensive rebounds, by percentage, than St. Mary’s, and the defensive efficiency ranks third nationally. A 3-point loss to Houston gave the first signal of the good fortune to come.

Questions: There were some unsightly pre-conference losses, like Washington and Colorado State. The Gaels have three 3-point shooters who exceed 40 percent, but they have trouble getting easy buckets, and they’ll run into difficulty coming from behind.

Prospects: This is not an All-Airport team but no coach in St. Mary’s’ bracket will sleep well. A Sweet 16 is certainly possible.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (28-3, 28th in KenPom).

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 2-1, 5-3.

Strengths: Bombs away. The Owls shoot 38 percent from the 3-point line. Vladislav Goldin is a strong offensive rebounder. They rank 15th nationally in stopping 2-point attempts, and they’re strong off the bench.

Questions: They are not guaranteed to get an at-large bid if they don’t win the Conference USA tournament, and they have lost to Middle Tennessee and UAB. Having played few non-conference powerhouses, it’s difficult to know how FAU will handle the lane against good teams.

Prospects: Dusty May has built a team that did not lose between Dec. 11 and Feb. 2. Winning begets winning.

SAN DIEGO STATE (23-6, 14th in KenPom.)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 4-5, 9-6.

Strengths: Teams addicted to the 3-pointer won’t like this matchup. San Diego State’s opponents shoot 29.8 percent from that line. But the Aztecs are better offensively than usual, ranking 41st in efficiency. San Diego State also is 20th in Division I experience. Matt Bradley is the offensive driver, Nathan Mensah a formidable offensive rebounder and shot blocker. Adam Seiko is a 50 percent 3-point man and Jaedon Ledee averages eight points in 18 minutes.

Questions: The Aztecs’ turnovers can be a problem. Bradley is the only double-figure averager, so scoring droughts are possible.

Prospects: If they get into the Pac-12 they’ll have the second-best crowds in the league, and probably the best arena. Administrators should hope for that. Coaches probably should not.

FADERS

PURDUE (26-5, 6th in KenPom.)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 9-4, 16-5.

Strengths: Zach Edey, at 7-foot-4, should be the national Player of the Year. Among other things, he has the best offensive rebound rate in the nation. Purdue lives up to its usual defensive standard, by limiting 3-point shooters to 31.1 percent and by refusing to foul.

Questions: Can Edey’s little helpers shoot consistently enough when he gets the ball out of the post? Purdue lost four of its final eight, including two to Indiana, and couldn’t get to 75 points in those losses.

Prospects: The NCAA tournament has become a burden for a program that hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1980. Last year the Boilermakers lost to St. Peter’s in the Sweet 16. They might not get that far this time.

ARIZONA (25-6, 11th in KenPom.)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 8-2, 13-6.

Strengths: Their entertainment value is unmatched. Arizona ranks 6th in tempo, sixth in offensive efficiency, 19th in 3-point percentage and fourth in assists-per-bucket. Azoulas Tubelis was the best player in the Pac-12 most of the season, and he and Omar Ballo make it hard to see in the paint.

Questions: The Wildcats have been jarringly inconsistent. They lost to Washington State, Utah, Oregon and Stanford, all by nine or more points. Kerr Kriisa has had turnover problems, and the defense doesn’t generate enough takeaways.

Prospects: At their best they’re Final Four caliber. Whether they can find their best in four consecutive games is dubious.

TENNESSEE (22-9, 5th in KenPom.)

Record against Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 teams: 7-6, 10-9.

Strengths: The best defensive team in the country, with a nation’s-best 3-point defense of 25.5 percent. The Vols rank sixth in 2-point FG percentage and are 15th in steal percentage and 42nd in block percentage. Santiago Vescovi is the shooter to stop. Tennessee has wins over Kansas and Texas to brag on.

Questions: The season-ending injury to point guard Zakai Zeigler is massive. He could create and slash and had the 10th-best assist rate in the nation. The Vols are 32.6 percent 3-point shooters. They can’t count on rockfighting their way to the Final Four.

Prospects: Not great. Tennessee has lost six of its past 10, including a home loss to Missouri and a Saturday loss at Auburn without Zeigler.