An early guide to NCAA bracket mischief

Is there another UMBC in the house this March?

Ryan Odom

For good or ill, the most fan-intense day of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament happens before it starts. Selection Sunday is when the bracket gets laid out, when the borderline teams either cavort in front of the cameras or cry in front of the cameras or, if they have any sense, ban all the cameras in the first place.

The next morning, the break-room banter will start, and folks who normally are staring at profit-loss statements are passing around their predictions. It will only take five to seven days to incinerate most of those sheets, thanks to the upsets that will elevate the mystery guests of the tournament, the teams who aren’t televised constantly, the ones who ride buses instead of chartered planes and play their home games in front of friends and families and people who just want to get out of the cold.

Winning one of those games is a great way to sell T-shirts; losing is a great way for a rich coach to get bought out. After that first weekend, the tournament usually reverts to mean predictability, although St. Peter’s made it to the Elite Eight in 2022.

Ryan Odom is a child of the busted bracket, as well as the son of Dave Odom, who coached Tim Duncan at Wake Forest. Ryan was in charge of Maryland-Baltimore County, which was 16th seeded and drew top-seeded Virgnia in 2018. No 16 had ever beaten a One. Most people figured it would happen at some point, but nobody could figure out how. Maybe a 3-point heave at the buzzer? No. Actually it would take a no-doubt blowout, the kind that UMBC delivered, 74-54.

The Retrievers lost to Kansas State in the second round, while the Cavaliers slowly emerged from their catatonia. In 2019 Virginia won its first NCAA championship, and coach Tony Bennett took his credential from that 2018 nightmare wherever he went.

This could be another 16 over One season. The field is unusually flat. Alabama is a Top 5 team that has lost to UConn by 17 and to Oklahoma by 24. Tennessee is a Top 5 team that has lost to Colorado by 12 and to Florida by 13. Those two plus Houston and Purdue are the top four teams in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. None has won an NCAA tournaemnt before.

But the odds against the lower tier have lengthened, because players can now “transfer up” and play immediately. A player who has thrived in a one-bid league can now join a team in a top conference without any consequence.

Still, there will be enough fraudulent also-rans from the TV leagues to ensure some mayhem in the first weekend. Those are teams that finish sixth in those conferences, spend the winter proving time and again that they’re not among the elite, and yet get buzzed into the field because they benefited from all the chances they got. North Carolina looked the part for most of the 2021-22 season. Then something kicked in, and the Tar Heels retired Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski in the NCAA semifnals and came within a shot of winning the championship. So for every predictive formula, there’s a Mutombo-like refutation.

The following is a rundown of the most likely disrupters. Note that Murray State is not among them, because Ja Morant’s alma mater should not be a surprise to anyone. Also note that Florida Atlantic is not listed, because it was 21-1 before a loss to UAB this week and is nationally ranked. A win or two by the Owls won’t be an upset to anyone who is paying attention.

None of the following are guaranteed entry into the NCAA because they could always lose in their league tournaments. Again, they face pressures that Big 10 and ACC teams don’t. But, every once in a while, those pressures toughen them up for the magic moments ahead.

SAM HOUSTON STATE: The Bearkats personify the mischief of March. They have senior guards, depth, familiarity with “power conference” opponents, and a formula. They lead Division I in 3-point percentage (40.4) and force 18 turnovers per game, and they knocked off Oklahoma and Utah in December. Going into Saturday they were 17-5 overall but only 7-3 in the WAC, which is led by Utah Valley, coached by ex-Laker Mark Madsen and featuring premier shot-blocker Aziz Bandaogo. Sam Houston has the best NET ranking of any conference team (50th) but will likely have to win the league tournament in Las Vegas. If it does, it will cause nerve damage, at least, in the NCAA first round.

LIBERTY: Can two 5-foot-9 starting guards see the light in March, or will they need to stand on a box? Darius McGhee is Division 1’s second leading scorer, and has played 155 games for the Flames. He takes a higher percentage of his team’s shots than anyone else in America. Colin Porter is a freshman who reclassified so he could pass up his senior year in high school in Ashland, Ky., and at 145 pounds he leads Liberty in assists. The Flames have beaten eight “power conference” teams over the past eight years, and they knocked off Mississippi State in the first round of the 2019 tournament. They also are fourth nationally in total wins over the past four years. Coach Ritchie McKay has been around several blocks, most notably at New Mexico and Oregon State. The Flames still have to subdue Kenesaw State in the Atlantic Sun tournament, but they have a shooter’s chance against anybody.

HOFSTRA: This team was 6-6 after a four-game losing streak in December, but now has won 10 of 12. It also won at College of Charleston, which had just earned a Top 25 ranking and had won 20 consecutive games. Hofstra thus tied the Cougars for first place in the Colonial. Speedy Claxton, probably the best player in Hofstra history and a 10-year NBA guard, is the second-year coach, and Oregon transfer Aaron Estrada lost 24 pounds over the summer and  is the top scorer at 21 per game. Hofstra beat Arkansas last season and played Purdue and St. Mary’s this season, so apprehension won’t be a problem.

ORAL ROBERTS: For those who obsess on tournament history, this should sound familiar. Oral Roberts, now 20-4, can ride into the postseason on the hand of Max Abmas. Two years ago that was the recipe for a first-round upset of Ohio State. Now the Eagles have transfers Connor Vanover, at 7-foot-5, and Isaac McBride to join Abmas, who averages 22 a game. Vanover played at Cal and Arkansas previously and has two seven-foot brothers, one of whom plays saxophone in the Alabama band. Oral Roberts is 44th in the NCAA’s NET rankings, which can translate into Selection Sunday.

UC SANTA BARBARA: Two years ago the Gauchos were 12th seeded and came within a point of Creighton in the first round. This year they are 18-3 and in the Big West lead by a game over UC Irvine. They’re also 86th in the NET rankings while UCI is 87th, so the league tournament will be a white-knuckler. Cal transfer Andre Kelly has given UCSB some heft in the middle, but the team’s best player, and maybe the league’s, is point guard Ajay Mitchell, who came from the Belgian national program. UCSB holds its opponents to 62.2 points a game and is 296th in tempo, so maybe it can slow-walk a glamour team into frustration.

COLGATE: The Raiders beat Syracuse in December and their coach, Matt Langel, has been at the helm for 12 years. All five of their starters are double-figure scorers, including freshman Braeden Smith from Seattle. They’re undefeated in the Patriot League and a championship would be their fourth in five years, and they normally start four seniors. With a team 3-point shooting percentage of 40, who knows?

And Ryan Odom? He is now coaching Utah State, which is contending in the Mountain West with a NET ranking of 32 and a 10-game win streak. The Aggies might get a party invitation even if they don’t get the automatic bid.

But no win by Odom will bust any self-respecting bracket. You only get to shock the world once.