Does a salary cap really balance the scales?

A look at the past 15 years shows its influence is mixed.

What a time for socialism to be alive. Not only are its politicians thriving, the billionaires of sports have signed on, too.

Short of talking in Swedish and insisting on six months parental leave, baseball’s owners are pushing socialism in spikes. That’s all “competitive balance” is, you know. It’s a push to make the game a paler shade of beige, to make sure all teams are as close to .500 as humanly possible.

The NFL has followed the John Maynard Keynes model for years, sharing revenue, observing a draft in which the worst pick first, and shaping a schedule that punishes a team for winning the previous year.

Now baseball is threatening to impose a salary cap (and salary floor) on the game and has convinced the mediaocracy that it will risk the 2027 season to see it through. It’s all the name of making the game “fair.” The richest teams have hijacked the outcomes and cornered the market on the best players, and the owners just can’t let the moguls take over. They’re the only ones who deserve moats and castles, you know.

Competitive balance is their catchphrase. When the Yankees and Dodgers were playing in the World Series almost annually, in the 50s, and when the Yankees of 1936-43 were appearing in seven World Series in an eight-year span and winning six of them and winning over 100 games five times, did the game sputter and die without competitive balance? The war cry, supposedly, was “Break up the Yankees,” but when they did quit winning, people didn’t really celebrate. According to Simon and Garfunkel, a nation turned its lonely eyes to Joe DiMaggio, not Jim Bottomley. Greatness is what the fans want. When greatness comes to town, you circle the date and you skip choir practice.

Pro basketball was never more popular than when the Bulls were winning six Finals and losing none, and no pro football team had more personality and charisma than the Steelers, when they won four Super Bowls in six years. Having a different champ every season is great for each market. The NBA has had eight champs in the past eight seasons. That’s 27 percent of the league. But it doesn’t do much for the folklore, particularly when the Bucks and Nuggets rise and fade so quickly.

But if a salary cap really smoothed out the competition and recognized brainpower as much as fortune, that would be a worthy goal. The evidence indicates that it does not.

The NFL has a hard salary cap, although it is approaching the GDP of Taiwan. Its teams have to perform triage every off-season. Kenneth Walker was the Super Bowl MVP for the Seahawks, and now he plays for Kansas City, because Seattle simply had too many other mouths to feed.

So, over the past 15 seasons, nine different franchises have won Super Bowls. Kansas City and New England have won three apiece.

Ten franchises have lost Super Bowls, with the Patriots and San Francisco at three apiece.

Nine have lost NFC Championship Games, and nine others have lost AFC championship games. But only six of the 32 teams have failed to reach the Final Four in that span.

The NHL also has a hard salary cap. In its past 15 seasons (excluding 2020 and 2021, when its playoffs were affected by Covid-19), ten of its teams have won Stanley Cups, including three by Chicago and two apiece by Florida, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles. Eleven franchises have lost in the Final: Tampa Bay, Boston, Vegas and Edmonton twice each. Six teams have lost in the Eastern Conference finals, and ten have lost in the West final.

Seven of its 32 teams have fallen short of the Cup semifinals.

We’re not going to deal with the NBA, because its cap has more fine print than an aspirin bottle.

And now baseball, where spending is unlimited, although there is a luxury tax.

Eight different franchises have won the World Series in the past 15 seasons (excluding 2020). San Francisco leads with three and the Dodgers, Boston and Houston have two apiece.

Twelve teams have been World Series losers, with Houston, Texas and the Dodgers leading with two. That’s one more than hockey, two more than football.

Eight franchises have lost in the American League Championship Series and seven has lost in the NLCS.

And eight franchises have failed to reach the LCS level: the Angels, the Athletics, Minnesota, the White Sox, Miami, Pittsburgh. Cincinnati and Colorado. That’s eight of 30. Twenty-two MLB teams have at least gotten to within a series of a World Series in that time. That seems pretty competitively balanced, especially when you consider that 25 NHL teams are in that group, and 26 NFL teams.

So to review:

NFL: Nine champions, ten Super Bowl losers, nine NFC championship losers, nine AFC championship losers.

NHL: Ten champions, 11 Stanley Cup losers, six Eastern Conference championship losers, ten Western Conference championship losers.

MLB: Eight champions, 12 World Series losers, eight ALCS losers, seven NLCS losers.

In other words, a baseball salary cap isn’t likely to spread the winning much more widely than today’s system does. Even if salaries are capped, it will all come down to the things that can’t be quantified or regulated. Player evaluation, instruction, desire, long-term vision, and a formidable load of health and luck.

You can’t lose a baseball season over that. Not unless you’re more interested in proving a theory than advancing a game.