Eagles-Chiefs: Don't overthink it
Philadelphia only lost once when Jalen Hurts was healthy.
On Nov. 14, the Washington Commanders rolled out the formula to beat a Philadelphia Eagles’ team quarterbacked by Jalen Hurts. Granted, it’s demanding, but it’s all we have.
Kick field goals of 58 and 55 yards.
Get yourself in a bunch of third-and-short situations and convert most of them. Washington cashed 12 of 21 third downs. Eight of those third downs required one or two yards, and there was also a fourth-and-one.
2-A. That led to scoring drives of 12, 13, 14 and 16 plays. Overall Washington snapped the ball 81 times. Philadelphia snapped it 47 times. For 40:24 of the game, Hurts was watching, helmet off. That’s the best defense you can play.
Recover two fumbles in the fourth quarter.
Roll it up and the Commanders won, 32-21, a deceptive score because of a Stanford-band play at the end that wound up in the Eagles’ end zone. It was Philadelphia’s first loss and would be its only loss when Hurts was playing and healthy.
It obviously didn’t stick with the Eagles, who would lose to Dallas and New Orleans when Hurts’ shoulder put him on the bench and sent Gardner Minshew into the huddle.
That’s a series of improbable events that Kansas City, in Sunday’s Super Bowl, won’t try to duplicate. You don’t ask the league MVP, Patrick Mahomes, to hand off 49 times. But neither can the Chiefs expect a successful fastbreak against the most forbidding pass defense in the league and a parade of pass rushers who sacked quarterbacks 15 more times than anyone else in the league did.
This is just one of the angles in a Super Bowl that bulges with them. There’s the Andy Reid angle, concerning the Kansas City coach who spent 14 years in Philadelphia before fatigue set in and the coach and the team “parted ways.” The Eagles have had seven winning seasons in the 10 seasons since, and two Super Bowls. But Reid has won seven consecutive AFC West titles, brought Kansas City its first championship since the Chiefs matriculated down the field in Super Bowl 4, and has them in another Super Bowl for the third time in four years.
Another way to measure Reid’s impact is by Mahomes’ 13 playoff games. Eleven of them have been played in Arrowhead Stadium, indicating homefield advantage, gained by regular season excellence. The other two are Super Bowls. In those games Mahomes has thrown 32 touchdowns with seven interceptions. Reid has won 72.2 percent of his games in Kansas City and is 247-138-1 overall. His fourth win in 2023 will send him past Tom Landry and into fourth place alltime.
But in Philadelphia they still shake their heads over Reid’s “clock management,” which is a phrase you use to convince people you know football. They’re happy with Nick Sirianni, whom Reid did not retain when he took over Kansas City, and who (with help from QB coach Brian Robinson) has refined Hurts without removing his running instincts. In doing so, Sirianni and coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon have transformed the Eagles into a heat-seeking Panzer division on both sides. He’s brash and impulsive, traits that fit his town, and his preparation shows in the first quarter. The Eagles have scored 12 of 19 times in their first possession, including 10 touchdowns.
Desperate to find a blemish, some have ridiculed the Eagles’ schedule, which consisted of the AFC South and various NFC palookas. You’ve heard less of that in the playoffs, when Philadelphia won its first two games by a combined 69-14.
Besides, an Eagles fan will point out that Nick Foles was the winning pitcher and Tom Brady the losing pitcher five years ago. That victory, the first Super Bowl win in club history, was a triumph of the underdog and the “Philly Special.” This time, the city is smugly certain of victory, which is strange because the Chiefs have the same 16-3 record.
Strip away all the matchups and you have two issues. Mahomes’ ankle has been treated, rested, char-broiled and carbon-dated for two weeks now. Will it allow him to dash away from the pass rush?
The second issue is related. Can Kansas City’s offensive line, formidable with Creed Humphrey at center, deal with the tsunami of pass rushers that rarely needs to blitz to get the job done?
To handle that, the Chiefs will have to borrow a little of Washington’s recipe and run effectively. Isiah Pacheco, the seventh-round pick in what was an epic 2022 draft, will be charged with that. The Eagles will try to muffle tight end Travis Kelce, but Reid has ways to get him open. Throwing deep will be tricky against cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Mahomes might have to be content with small victories, but, remember, he has a baseball background. Singles are fine.
Mahomes will be asked to surpass his own celestial standard, because it’s difficult to imagine the Chiefs’ defense impeding Philadelphia. It’s either a sledgehammer running game, with Hurts running the option behind the best offensive line in many a year, or it’s a deep passing game featuring wide-outs Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown, the latter coming over from Tennessee in one of many Mensa-worthy transactions from the desk of general manager Howie Roseman.
After years of outrageous blowouts, we’ve become accustomed to Super Bowls that come down to the last chicken wing. If this one does, the money should be on Mahomes. The Chiefs have not lost a game by more than four points since Oct. 24, 2021 (at Tennessee, 27-3).
But in games Hurts has played, the Eagles have reached a level seldom seen in the NFL since the 1985 Chicago Bears. Their success is not based on play-calling or matchups. It is based on the realities of leverage on both lines, using the philosophy that the most important events on a football field are the ones conducted at the closest proximity to the ball.
Playmakers don’t always make plays, but Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson and Brandon Graham and Javon “Grave Digger” Hargrove only get dominated once, and Nov. 14 is deep in their rear-view.
Ride the Big Uglies in this one, and don’t overthink it. Eagles, 37-24.