Kiffin finds a flaw in the playoff system

The conference championships, and the silly fact that the winners qualify for the CFP, just complicate things.

Lane Kiffin has no filter, in case you’re filling out a Christmas list. But then he doesn’t really want one.

Kiffin has churned through Tennessee, USC, the Raiders, the offensive coordinator chair at Alabama, Florida Atlantic and now Mississippi, where he’s coached since 2020. He is still only 47. Along the way he has needled, complained and bragged his way into the headlines, and out of several hearts, but scoreboards have a way of rescuing people from themselves, and Kiffin’s collegiate coaching record is 102-51. Ole Miss is as sustainably good as it’s been since Johnny Vaught was there in the late 50s and early 60s. A Southeastern Conference title for this year’s Rebels would be their first since 1963.

Except that Kiffin isn’t sure he’s that interested. To win the SEC title, one must play in the SEC championship game. Winning it automatically gets you into the College Football Playoff. Losing it, in Ole Miss’ case, would be jeopardizing, maybe even disqualifying. It would be the Rebels’ third loss.

“There’s a cost and a benefit to everything,” Kiffin said. “There’s great benefits to this playoff system, and so many people being excited, and fans and programs and more games, and then there’s cost, too. The conference championships don’t mean as much.

“I’ve talked to other coaches, so I’ll just kind of give you the feeling from some other coaches…they don’t want to be in it. You know, the reward to get a (CFP) bye versus the risk to get knocked out completely. I mean, that’s a pretty big – that’s a really big risk.”

When the CFP was only a four-team affair, there weren’t enough spots to handle the league titleists. The selection committee took the four teams it felt were the best. You could quibble, of course, but you knew what the intent was.

The conferences then devised a 12-team scheme that would make sure five champions would get automatic bids. In the meantime, consolidation created four major conferences: the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. Their champions, or whoever the four highest-ranked champions are, will get byes in the first round.

This is illogical for several reasons and scandalous for a very big one. There are 17 teams in the ACC, 16 in the SEC, 16 in the Big 12 and 16 in the Big Ten. Equitable scheduling is impossible. Everybody can’t play everybody else in a 12-game framework, with space given for non-conference games. So, naturally, there really can’t be a true conference champion or, in the SEC’s case, a fair way to determine two teams to play it off.

Take the SEC first. Texas and Texas A&M have one SEC loss. Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia and Tennesee have two. All six have cases to make for the playoff. But Texas did not play Ole Miss, Alabama or Texas. Its best road win is Vanderbilt. A&M didn’t play Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee or Georgia.

Georgia missed A&M. It played everybody else. It beat Texas and Tennessee, lost to Alabama and Ole Miss. It very likely will end up 10-2, but if the Bulldogs were to fall into the championship game, they might feel like declining the honor.

The ACC is even more absurd. SMU hasn’t lost a conference game. Miami and Clemson have lost one. None of the three has played a game against the other two. Meanwhile, Louisville had to play all of them.

In the Big 10, Indiana is going for its first conference title since 1967. It plays at Ohio State Saturday. The other contenders are top-ranked Oregon and Penn State.  They didn’t play each other, nor did they play Indiana. The Buckeyes had all three top-tier teams on their dance card. It’s generally hard to muster sympathy for a behemoth like Ohio State, but if the Buckeyes get knocked out of a chance for the Big Ten title because they played Oregon and Indiana didn’t, that’s not right.

The Big 12 will come down to BYU, Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State. The Buffaloes and Cyclones will each miss the other three. ASU will only miss Colorado and Iowa State. BYU will avoid Colorado and Iowa State but has to play at ASU. Colorado, with two losses, is assured of making the Big 12 championship if it wins at Kansas and beats Oklahoma State in Boulder. The Buffs might be better off playing NBA 2024 at home that day, or watching Deion and Shedeur make a commercial with Doug and The Emu. A loss in the championship would leave CU with a 10-3 record and a ticket to the sofa.

So none of that is fair. Georgia coach Kirby Smart’s oblique criticism of the CFP rankings seems to be that nobody really appreciates how good the SEC is, and that there aren’t 11 teams who would fare better against Georgia’s schedule than Georgia has. And that is probably true, considering that Georgia’s opening game was against Clemson. But the CFP actually agrees with Smart because it slotted Georgia 10th. Five of the six SEC powerhouses are ranked within the Diluted Dozen. Texas A&M is 15th.

Smart also knows how the SEC title game cuts both ways.

In 2019 the Bulldogs won the SEC East (back then, the league was split into divisions and the two winners met in Atlanta. Now the top two teams go to the championship game). Their only loss was to South Carolina in double overtime. Then they ran into Atlanta and lost the title game. They were exiled to the Sugar Bowl where, dispirited, they lost to Baylor.

In 2021 Georgia went 12-0 and again lost to Alabama in Atlanta. This time the door swung open and it played in the CFP, and beat Alabama in the rematch.

In 2023 Georgia went 12-0 again, on the heels of back-to-back CFP titles. It yet again lost to the Crimson Tide in Atlanta. There was no reprieve this time. Alabama got picked to go to the 4-team playoff, and Georgia went to the Orange Bowl, where it embarrassed a skeleton crew from Florida State.

Smart obviously thinks Georgia deserves a CFP spot regardless. But if it went to Atlanta and lost, it would be 10-3 and teetering. Remember: Twelve spots for six SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, three ACC teams, at least three Big 12 teams, plus Notre  Dame, plus a fifth conference champ, which right now would be Boise State if it won the Mountain West. That’s a lot of contestants and not nearly enough chairs.

The other problem is the tiebreaker method that some conferences use. One of the top criteria is “record in common games.” In other words, let’s say Clemson and Miami tie for second in the ACC. They didn’t play each other, so let’s go to common games. There were only two, Florida State and Louisville. Miami beat Louisville, Clemson didn’t. So Miami goes and Clemson doesn’t. Fair enough. Clemson didn’t take care of business and doesn’t deserve to escape the hook.

But, in some cases, “common games” requires a suspension of common sense. Teams don’t stay the same. The Colorado game that got smashed by Nebraska bears no resemblance to the one today. The South Carolina team that Kentucky dismantled has now beaten Texas A&M and Missouri. Baylor lost to Utah in September, 23-12. You’d love to play Utah now; you’d hate to play Baylor.

The 4-team playoff was reviled by people who got tired of Alabama, Georgia and Clemson overstaying their welcome, but those teams happened to be the best. At least the intent was to identify the four best teams. The 16-team playoff is protectionist. It appeases conferences that have grown too big and have spread too far. Oregon and Rutgers both belong to the Big Ten, but they share nothing as conference members except the money. They have no context, no link, no thread. These aren’t conferences. They’re Zoom communities.

The irony of Kiffin’s statement is that he shouldn’t be skittish about going to the SEC championship game. He has a team that can indeed win it. Any team that beats Georgia, 28-10, can win anything, including a CFP trophy. On second thought, that’s what you can give Kiffin for the holidays. If you gave him the filter, he’d just exchange it.