More teams, more arguments: Handicapping the CFP
With a 12-team playoff, losses aren't as lethal. But there are still some win-or-go-home games coming up.
The teams that aspire to this year’s College Football Playoff, also known as the Diluted Dozen, are approaching the Pearly Gates. Who passes through and who descends into grievance?
Please note that these are not necessarily the 12 best teams, since five conference champions will qualify, and that the Big Ten and SEC championship games may well determine nothing except who gets a bye into the second round. Also note that several of the 12 anointed teams will be playing with a large smudge mark on their bodies of work, ones that wouldn’t have been forgiven in the old 4-team format.
It’s not an improvement, but it’s what we’ve come to expect from college sports administrators, who are much better at raising money than governing. But it is what we have until the next botched attempt at “inclusion” comes along.
The following is a rundown of the contenders. And, yes, the end of the regular season will be riveting enough:
OREGON (10–0)
Resume: A one-point home win over Ohio State was the game of the year so far. Oregon dismantled Illinois, its only other ranked opponent. It’s also the only team to beat Boise State. Dillon Gabriel has passed for 22 touchdowns, run for six.
Schedule: at Wisconsin, Washington at home.
Prospectus: The Ducks can lose the Big Ten championship game and still sail into the Diluted Dozen.
OHIO STATE (8–1)
Resume: After making an early bid to win the Mid-American Conference, the Buckeyes became the only conqueror of Penn State. The close loss at Oregon will just be a fueling mechanism.
Schedule: at Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan.
Prospectus: Job One is to break the 3-game losing streak at the hands of The School Up North, but the Indiana game is the one to watch. A loss to the Hoosiers would be Ohio State’s second, with no chance to leave an impression at the Big 10 title game.
PENN STATE (8–1)
Resume: The Nittany Lions lost at home to Ohio State. They beat a ranked Illinois team and squeaked out a win at USC. Otherwise they were underscheduled and if that keeps them home, it’s their fault.
Schedule: At Purdue, at Minnesota, Maryland.
Prospectus: The Minnesota game could be tricky, but the Lions don’t usually lose to their underlings. They’ll get in if they’re 11-1.
INDIANA (10-0)
Resume: The Hoosiers’ opponents are 40-58. The flip side is that Indiana’s average margin in Big Ten games is 23.7 points. The week after Nebraska pushed Ohio State hard into the fourth quarter, Indiana destroyed the Cornhuskers, 56-7.
Schedule: At Ohio State, Purdue.
Prospectus: A loss to the Buckeyes could endanger the Hoosiers because of their schedule. But it depends on what kind of loss. There’s also the possibility that Indiana is just that good.
TENNESSEE (8–1)
Resume: The loss was at Arkansas, and Tennessee had to escape Florida in overtime. The Vols beat a ranked Oklahoma team that has faded severely since. The win over Alabama in Knoxville is golden, particularly if Tennessee wins at Georgia Saturday.
Schedule: At Georgia, UTEP, at Vanderbilt.
Prospectus: The Georgia game means approximately everything, but the Vanderbilt game is dangerous. If Tennessee wins both, it should get in, no matter what happens in the conference championship.
TEXAS (8–1)
Resume: The Longhorns lost 30-15 at home to Georgia and looked unqualified. They barely won at Vanderbilt. An early win at Michigan isn’t the accomplishment that it seemed.
Schedule: at Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M.
Prospectus: The Nov. 30 renewal of the A&M rivalry will be massive for both teams, because both will need it to get into the SEC title game and maybe snag a bye in the CFP. Plus, you can’t get enough hate this time of year. A stumble at Arkansas Saturday would sound the alarms in Austin.
TEXAS A&M (7–2)
Resume: The Aggies haven’t given up more than 24 points to anybody. Their losses were to Notre Dame in the opener, at home, and at South Carolina. LSU was the closest thing to a compelling win. The Texas game will serve as that opportunity.
Schedule: New Mexico State, at Auburn, at Texas.
Prospectus: Texas will be the fourth Top 10 team on their schedule. No one knows if the committee will automatically blacklist 3-loss teams, so winning that one is probably a must, but if the Aggies do it, they’ll be in good shape.
MISSISSIPPI (8-2)
Resume: The Rebels had their breakthrough against Georgia last week after they’d lost to Kentucky and at LSU. They have the best offense in the SEC.
Schedule: at Florida, Mississippi State.
Prospectus: Likely to finish 10-2 and miss the SEC game. Again, a weak non-league schedule could give the committee an excuse to boot the Rebels.
ALABAMA (7–2)
Resume: Beating Georgia and LSU is a good place to start. The loss to Vanderbilt isn’t the humiliation ‘Bama fans think it is. The other loss was at Tennessee. Jalen Milroe’s performance at LSU might be the single best day by any player this season.
Schedule: Mercer, at Oklahoma, Auburn.
Prospectus: Pretty much the same as Ole Miss, except with one more marquee win. Alabama had two losses last year and got into a 4-team playoff, so….
GEORGIA (7—2)
Resume: After Saturday’s game with Tennessee, the Bulldogs will have played teams ranked 14th, 4th, first, 16th and 7th. Carson Beck threw three interceptions in three consecutive games and Georgia only lost one of them.
Schedule: Tennessee, Massachusetts, Georgia Tech.
Prospectus: The Tennessee game is rightly considered an elimination game, since Georgia has little chance at the conference title. But if the Bulldogs win it, they’ll have an argument.
MIAMI (9—1)
Resume: The Hurricanes were sailing along until Georgia Tech stopped them in Atlanta. They haven’t played a ranked team, and they’ve given up 30 or more points four times. They do have moxie, having slipped by Cal and Virginia Tech at the end.
Schedule: Wake Forest, at Syracuse.
Prospectus: It stinks to give every conference an automatic bid because the top four leagues are too big to make everybody play everybody. Miami has not met ACC leader SMU, for instance. The conference title game will take care of that, and will determine Miami’s chances.
SMU (8-1)
Resume: The Mustangs weren’t taken seriously until they dismantled Pittsburgh, unbeaten at the time. Their only loss was a 3-pointer to BYU. They put 66 points on TCU. But they don’t play Miami or Clemson. No matter what happens, this is one of college football’s best stories. See ESPN’s 30 for 30 documentary on SMU and the NCAA death penalty for confirmation.
Schedule: Boston College, at Virginia, Cal.
Prospectus: SMU will have to maintain its form to get to 11-1, and a probable ACC title game with Miami. With all the SEC contenders stacked up like missile systems, the loser probably goes home.
NOTRE DAME (8—1)
Resume: Oh, if the Irish hadn’t stepped on themselves when they played Northern Illinois, just seven days after an opening win at Texas A&M. It doesn’t help that Northern Illinois is 6-4. Such a pratfall would have been disqualifying in the 4-team field, but the Irish have restored their chances. Wins over Louisville, Georgia Tech and Navy are the highlights.
Schedule: Virginia, Army at Yankee Stadium, at USC.
Prospectus: It’s not an easy finish, but the Irish have averaged 45.8 points in their past four wins, with Riley Leonard running the show. They’ll need to win out. Knocking Notre Dame out of the picture would give USC a reason to live.
BYU (9–0)
Resume: The Big 12 wasn’t supposed to be this wide open. No one saw the Cougars coming, but they have wins over SMU and Kansas State, and they also handled Oklahoma State and Baylor, who were supposed to be better than they are. Four of their wins are by one score.
Schedule: Kansas, at Arizona State, Houston.
Prospectus: Kansas is playing better, but the real hurdle is ASU on the road. Winning that one would probably match BYU with Colorado in the championship game. Losing it won’t be an option.
COLORADO (7–2)
Resume: No doubt the Buffaloes have improved by miles since they were throttled by Nebraska in Week 2, but they haven’t beaten a ranked team yet. Their other loss was to Kansas State, and they beat Baylor on a Hail Mary. Their defense has put them in this position, along with better protection for Shedeur Sanders. Travis Hunter has an Ohtani-like case for the Heisman Trophy, and every win helps.
Schedule: Utah, at Kansas, Oklahoma State.
Prospectus: Colorado could easily get to the Big 12 title game and likely will be favored. With Deion, Shedeur and Hunter, this is still the “it” team in college football.
BOISE STATE (8–1)
Resume: Do we all know who Ashton Jeanty is by now? He has a 406-yard lead in the FBS rushing standings, is averaging 7.7 yards a pop and has scored 23 touchdowns. The Broncos only lost to Oregon by three, wiped out Washington State and won a tough one at UNLV. They’ve scored at least 28 in each game.
Schedule: At San Jose State, at Wyoming, Oregon State.
Prospectus. The five highest-ranked conference champs get automatic bids. Boise State would have to win the Mountain West title, probably against Colorado State, which it hasn’t played. That game figures to be staged on Boise State’s blue turf. Then the Broncos would have to remain ranked ahead of Washington State and either Army or Tulane. So the Broncos will know their fate long before the CFP announcement.
BEST GUESS
Conference champs: Oregon, Texas, Colorado, Miami, Boise State.
At-large: Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Alabama,
Georgia, Tennessee.