Phillies, Dodgers shouldn't look back
They, Atlanta and Milwaukee are clearly the best on July 4 weekend, but the N.L. playoff party has been crashed before.
If the National League was any more top-heavy it could open a strip club. Only six of its clubs are above .500. Washington and Cincinnati are five games below, yet are only four-and-a-half games out of wild-card position. Considering how Arizona parlayed a 84-win regular season into a N.L. championship, it’s hard to tell such teams not to dream.
The Phillies used wild-card status the past two years and got to the World Series in 2022 and held a 3-2 lead in last year’s NLCS. The Braves won the East both of those seasons and were waylaid by the Phillies after enduring a first-round bye. So Atlanta appears to be trying a different method this season, although it certainly would rather be healthy enough to lead.
The Dodgers and the surprising Brewers are the other division leaders. Milwaukee commands the N.L. Central without its two headline starting pitchers, Corbin Burnes (traded) and Brandon Woodruff (hurt). St. Louis and San Diego have warmed up recently to make their own wild-card runs. The Padres, particularly, seem dangerous enough to give the Dodgers some trouble in the West.
Otherwise, there will be more business at the trade deadline than there probably should be. A look at where everybody stands:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Record: 58–30.
Runs Per Game: 2nd
Runs Allowed Per Game: 1st.
OPS: 2nd.
Bullpen WHIP: 5th.
Breakout Player: Lefthander Christopher Sanchez deepens the best rotation in the league with a 2.96 ERA in 18 starts and a 6-4 record.
Disappointment: Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto have struggled in the bullpen.
Fun Fact: Bryce Harper is hitting .391 with a 1.406 OPS with men in scoring position.
Needs: Health is paramount, with Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto all out, but the Phillies will be searching for setup relievers.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Record: 54-35.
Runs Per Game: 1st.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 3rd.
OPS: 1st.
Bullpen WHIP: 1st.
Breakout Player: Gavin Stone is 9-2 in 16 starts with a 3,03 ERA. He had only five major league starts before this.
Disappointment: Only Chris Taylor and Clayton Kershaw have been Dodgers every year since the 2017 World Series. Taylor has been a versatile warrior and is filling in at third base, but he’s also hitting .153.
Fun Fact: Dodgers are 27-17 at home, 27-18 on the road.
Needs: Starting pitching, along with their perennial hunt for a second baseman.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Record: 52-38.
Runs Per Game: 5th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 4th.
OPS: 6th.
Bullpen WHIP: 4th.
Breakout Player: Second-year second baseman Brice Turang is hitting .288 with 28 steals, and can pick it.
Disappointment: Hoby Milner’s job is to get lefties out, and they’re hitting .304 against him.
Fun Fact: The Brewers are 11 games ahead of the Cubs, who hired away Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell in the off-season.
Needs: The rotation. They are being forced to reach back into the archives and use Dallas Keuchel as a starter. Still, this is the surprise team of 2024 so far.
ATLANTA BRAVES
Record: 48–39.
Runs Per Game: 8th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 2nd.
OPS: 7th.
Bullpen WHIP: 2nd.
Breakout Player: Grant Holmes, the Dodgers’ first-round pick 10 years ago, has emerged in a surprisingly good bullpen.
Disappointment: Braves are waiting for someone to join Marcell Ozuna’s offensive party. Shortstop Orlando Arcia had a .741 OPS last year, is at .577 this year.
Fun Fact: Jesse Chavez, 40, has a 1.67 ERA in 28 relief appearances.
Needs: Who knew the Braves would be chasing offense at the deadline? Life is different without MVP Ronald Acuna Jr,
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Record: 49-44.
Runs Per Game: 6th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 6th.
OPS: 3rd.
Bullpen WHIP: 7th.
Breakout Player: Rookie outfielder Jackson Merrill is hitting .288 with 12 homers and 46 RBIs.
Disappointment: Xander Bogaerts has managed to play only 47 games and is hitting .219.
Fun Fact: Padres keep packing them in. They rank third in N.L. attendance.
Needs: They’re hot at the moment despite lots of injuries. Will be open to bullpen opportunities.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Record: 46–42.
Runs Per Game: 14th.
Runs Allowed per Game: 6th.
OPS: 10th.
Bullpen WHIP: 6th.
Breakout Player: It’s either rookie shortstop Masyn Winn (.294 average) or outfielder Alec Burleson (13 homers, .767 OPS). At one point Burleson had the BLT hit (Broke The Last Tie) in six consecutive St. Louis wins.
Disappointment: Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .169 with men in scoring position.
Fun Fact: Ryan Helsley leads baseball with 31 saves and has given up two homers in 40 games.
Needs: Another starting pitcher would help, but Cardinals are riding a wave at the moment.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Record: 44–45
Runs per Game: 3rd,
Runs Allowed Per Game: 13rd.
OPS: 4th.
Bullpen WHIP: 15th.
Breakout Player: In 34 games, reliever Ryan Thompson has a 0.955 WHIP and should easily pass his career high of 47 appearances.
Disappointment: Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll adds to the sophomore-jinx cliche, hitting .210 with a .298 on-base percentage.
Fun Fact: Christian Walker slugged five home runs in a 3-game series at Dodger Stadium. He has 19 in 42 games there with a 1.184 OPS.
Needs: Any arm will do. They’ll contribute to baseball’s supply-and-demand problem in the bullpen.
NEW YORK METS
Record: 43-44.
Runs Per Game: 4th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 12th.
OPS: 5th.
Bullpen WHIP: 12th.
Breakout Player: Mark Vientos, a 24-year-old second-round pick, has splashed with a .905 OPS at third base.
Disappointment: Former batting champ Jeff McNeil has 16 extra-base hits in 80 games and is hitting 216.
Fun Fact: Mets pitchers have walked 339 batters, 23 more than any other N.L. team.
Needs: Pitching of all kinds, coupled with hopes that Pete Alonso will have a hot second-half.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Record: 44-46.
Runs Per Game: 7th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 11th.
OPS: 8th..
Bullpen WHIP: 10th.
Breakout Player: Heliot Ramos has re-introduced the thrill to Oracle Park, hitting .300 with 40 RBIs and an .894 OPS.
Disappointment: Giants signed Cy Young winner Blake Snell and are awaiting his first win. He had a dreadful 1.944 WHIP in his six healthy starts.
Fun Fact: Giants are tied for last in the N.L. (with Colorado) in defensive efficiency, according to Baseball Reference.
Needs: Just close enough to the playoffs to be sidetracked into making a damaging trade.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Record: 42-46.
Runs Per Game: 13th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 7th.
OPS: 14th.
Bullpen WHIP: 12th.
Breakout Player: Paul Skenes is 5-0 in his first 10 starts with 78 strikeouts in 52 innings. If anything he’s been better than predicted.
Disappointment: The same cannot be said about Ke'Bryan Hayes, the third baseman who has three homers in 63 games and a .572 OPS. He is in Year 3 of an eight-year, $70M deal.
Fun Fact: Bryan Reynolds has an .836 OPS and is likely to finish above .800 for the fourth time in six years.
Needs: Bucs are close to having a dominant rotation. Could use a consistent bat but are unlikely to find it now.
CINCINNATI REDS
Record: 42-47.
Runs Per Game: 9th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 5th.
OPS: 11th.
Bullpen WHIP: 3rd.
Breakout Player: Nick Lodolo was 8-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 12 starts before landing on the injured list.
Disappointment: Lots of them on offense, but Will Benson stands out with 110 strikeouts and a 1.87 average.
Fun Fact: The Reds lead the N.L. in steals and Elly De La Cruz has 43 in 50 tries, to go with 15 homers and 119 strikeouts.
Needs: They’ve got several, but it’s probably wiser to let the calendar flip one more time.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Record: 42-47.
Runs Per Game: 10th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 7th.
OPS: 12th.
Bullpen WHIP: 7th.
Breakout Player: Shortstop CJ Abrams, part of the haul from San Diego in the Juan Soto deal, leads the Nationals with 14 home runs.
Disappointment: Joey Meneses had been the club’s most consistent hitter but slumped to an .578 OPS and is now in Triple-A.
Fun Fact: Lefty Patrick Corbin remains in the rotation with a 1-8 record. He is 28-65 since he finished 11th in Cy Young voting in 2019, the year the Nats were champs.
Needs: They’re plentiful, but Washington can’t afford to get pillaged at the deadline.
CHICAGO CUBS
Record: 41-49.
Runs Per Game: 12th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 7th.
OPS: 13th.
Bullpen WHIP: 13th.
Breakout Player: Shota Imanaga, the 30-year-old rookie from Japan who sang “Go Cubs Go” at his initial press conference, is 7-2 with a 3.16 ERA.
Disappointment: Closer Adbert Alzolay surrendered six homers in 17 innings before losing that job and then getting hurt.
Fun Fact: Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong hasn’t hit, but he is 16-for-16 in steal attempts.
Needs: Biggest need is to stop thinking they’re a player, or a manager, away from being good.
COLORADO ROCKIES
Record: 32-57.
Runs Per Game: 11th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 15th.
OPS:9th.
Bullpen WHIP: 15th.
Breakout Player: Ezequiel Tovar, 22, is having a nice sophomore year at shortstop. His OPS has cooled to .742, but he leads the club in total bases, has 13 homers and has an excellent glove.
Disappointment: Throw the whole bullpen in here. Opponents are hitting .287 against Rockies’ relievers, who have a 5.55 ERA, worst in the league by a margin of 1.07 runs.
Fun Fact: Overall, hitters have a .315 average with men in scoring position against Rockies pitching.
Needs: A high supply is needed to watch the Rockies, and I don’t mean players.
MIAMI MARLINS
Record: 31-58.
Runs Per Game: 15th.
Runs Allowed Per Game: 14th.
OPS: 15th.
Bullpen WHIP: 9th.
Breakout Player: Tanner Scott, the closer, has given up 18 hits and two home runs in 38 innings.
Disappointment: Jake Burger had 32 homers and an .828 OPS last year. This year he has eight and a .603.
Fun Fact: Eight of their 31 wins have been walk-offs.
Needs: A management team that actually thinks that it’s good to get to the playoffs, as Miami did last year. Or the Marlins could just re-hire general manager Kim Ng.
Great first sentence. And correct.