The bracket: Numbers point to only one team

Spoiler alert: Charles Barkley will be very happy if this comes true. Of course, he's usually happy.

The identity of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament champion isn’t all that hard to discern..

It’s the carnage along the way, the hairpin turns and the mysterious strangers, that make the journey worthwhile.

Ken Pomeroy, the premier college basketball analyst, has placed the answer right under our noses. Of the last 14 NCAA champs, only one was not ranked in the Top Ten in offensive efficiency. That was Shabazz Napier’s Connecticut Huskies of 2014. They were 39th.

Of those 14 champs, only one was not ranked in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency. That was Baylor in 2021. It was 22nd.

And of those 14 champs, only one was not in the Top 10 in either offense or defense. That was Connecticut in 2011. It was 19th and 15th.

One more milepost: Only three of those 14 champs ranked in the Top 100 in adjusted tempo. They were North Carollina in 2017 (40th) and North Carolina in 2009 (sixth) and Kansas in 2022 (65th). The rest of them slow-walked their way to the title. Virginia in 2019 was 353th in tempo, according to KenPom.com, but ranked second in offense. Last year’s UConn champs, who strolled through the tournament, were third in offense, seventh in defense, but only 204th in tempo.

This year the Huskies are the top-seeded team in the tournament and they rank first and 11th in offense/defense, and they are a very gradual 329th in tempo. There is only one team, in fact, that is in the top 10 in the two main categories, and it also likes to walk, not run, with a tempo ranking of 324.

Who is that? Sorry, you have to wait until the end of the movie like everyone else.

FIRST FOUR

Howard over Wagner: Wagner’s Donald Copeland is one of three NCAA coaches who played for Bob Hurley at St. Anthony’s in Jersey City. The others? Dan Hurley at UConn, of course, and Bashir Mason at St. Peter’s.

Virginia over Colorado State: Cavaliers are lucky the committee liked them. The good news is that they know it.

Montana State over Grambling: Bobcats had lost seven of 10 going into the Big Sky tournament.

Colorado over Boise State: Buffaloes are too talented to be a 10th seed.

WEST

North Carolina over Howard: If extra spice is needed, Bison coach Kenny Blakeney played at Duke.

Michigan State over Mississippi State: A pedigree pick. Spartans, no matter their flaws, usually get it together in March.

St. Mary’s over Grand Canyon: Gaels started the season 3-5, ended it 26-7. They’re third in the country in offensive rebound percentage, second in denying offensive boards on the other end. Should be good upset vaccine.

Charleston over Alabama: The Tide is a washout on defense. It gave up 100 or more points in three of the last seven.

Clemson over New Mexico: Sluggish down the stretch, the Tigers’ 79 percent shooting from the foul line will save them here.

Baylor over Colgate: Eight of Baylor’s past nine games were against NCAA tournament teams.

Dayton over Nevada: Da’Ron Holmes, a 6-foot-10 powerhouse who can shoot, introduces himself.

Arizona over Long Beach State: This could be a shocker if the Wildcats don’t start getting interested in their work.

North Carolina over Michigan State: Tar Heels occasionally win games on defense now.

Charleston over St. Mary’s: Aussie 3-point shooter Reyne Smith is the key man here. He tells his mates back home to think of Charleston as the place where Netflix filmed “Outer Banks.”

Baylor over Clemson: Seven Bears average between 10.5 and 14 points a game.

Dayton over Arizona: Caleb Love was the Pac-12’s final Player of the Year. That says more about the league than him.

Pat Kelsey

Charleston over North Carolina: It would be fun to see Pat Kelsey, Charleston’s tattooed Red Bull of a coach, levitate his way out of what used to be Staples Center.

Baylor over Dayton: Will this be Scott Drew’s last weekend in green? He’s supposedly a target at Louisville.

Baylor over Charleston: Unfortunately, regional weekends sometimes end this way, with an exhausted underdog getting steamrolled in front of a half-empty, faraway arena.

EAST

Connecticut over Stetson: To the tune of Lyle Lovett singing “You Can Have My Girl, But Don’t Touch My Hat.”

Florida Atlantic over Northwestern: Can the Owls function properly while they wear the higher-seeded (white) uniforms?

San Diego State over UAB: Jaedon LeDee, a TCU transfer, might be the best Aztec since Kawhi Leonard.

Auburn over Yale: The committee did the Tigers no favors here, but if they get off their SEC tournament cloud they should handle it.

Brigham Young over Duquesne: Over half of BYU’s shots are 3-pointers. The Cougars were more competitive in the Big 12 than expected.

Illinois over Morehead State: Terrence Shannon scored 102 in three Big Ten tournament games. His biggest game will be May 10, at a preliminary hearing to see if he’ll be tried for rape, after a September incident in Lawrence, Kans. Wisconsin fans taunted him with “No Means No” chants at the Big Ten.

Drake over Washington State: Drake was 17-2 when 6-foot-10, 275-pound center Darnell Brodie scored in double figures.

Iowa State over South Dakota State: Cyclone fans travel well, and here they only have to get to Omaha.

Connecticut over Florida Atlantic: As Dan Hurley said, “This group wants to make history in a place where it’s hard to make history.”

Johni Broome

Auburn over San Diego State: According to KenPom.com, Johni Broome should be runnerup to Zack Edey for Player of the Year.

Illinois over Brigham Young: Marcus Domask is a worthy sidekick for Shannon.

Iowa State over Drake: Iowa State claims the unofficial state championship. Men’s division, of course.

Auburn over Connecticut: Should be the best game of the tournament. Tigers are deeper and more explosive than most teams the Huskies have seen.

Illinois over Iowa State: The third-rate offense beats the top-rated defense, primarily because Iowa State has one of those tough 3-point nights it sometimes has outside of Ames.

Auburn over Illinois: Funny, how things come around. When Bruce Pearl was an Iowa assistant he taped a phone conversation with recruit Deon Thomas that appeared to suggest the Illini had broken recruiting rules. The NCAA investigated and took no action, but Pearl became Public Enemy No. 1 in Champaign and, for a while, was considered untouchable by Division I teams. That was 1989. Think everybody has forgotten?

SOUTH

Houston over Longwood: Cougars scored 41 in their last game, against Iowa State. They should get that by halftime.

Texas A&M over Nebraska: Aggies boast the best offensive rebound percentage in Division I.

James Madison over Wisconsin: After which, the Badgers will be forced to memorize “What The Constitution Means To Me.”

Duke over Vermont: No matter how hard Kyle Filipowski tries, he’ll never be hated like Christian Laettner.

Texas Tech over North Carolina State: The survival and advancement ends here, but the Wolfpack’s ACC tournament run won’t be forgotten.

Kentucky over Oakland: You can make the case that Antonio Reeves was the best shooter in Division I – 50.8 percent overall, 44.1 percent from 3-point, 86.9 percent on free throws.

Florida over Colorado: Jared Golden, who looks younger than some of his players, was the right coaching hire for the Gators.

Marquette over Western Kentucky: Don McHenry, a Milwaukee native who averaged 38 points in high school, could be a problem for the Eagles.

Texas A&M over Houston: The Aggies lost this game 70-66 in December. They shook off a 5-game SEC losing streak and finished well. Houston, its top-ranked defense notwithstanding, is always prone to sideways shooting.

Jared McCain

Duke over James Madison: Freshman Jared McCain makes Corona (Ca.) Centennial High coach Josh Giles proud, as do Donovan Dent of New Mexico and Kylan Boswell of Arizona.

Texas Tech over Kentucky: Wildcats haven’t been to a Final Four in nine years.That’s a millennium for the Big Blue Nation.

Florida over Marquette: It’s hard to believe Tyler Kolek, Marquette’s point guard, can be himself after his oblique injury.

Duke over Texas A&M: Don’t tell anybody, but Jon Scheyer has made Duke a better defensive team since he took over from What’s-his-name.

Florida over Texas Tech: Even without Micah Handgloten the Gators’ size will be decisive.

Duke over Florida: Veteran point guard Jeremy Roach is usually the barometer, and he handles the high pressure here.

MIDWEST

McNeese State over Gonzaga: Lowest-hanging fruit of the first round. McNeese is loaded with power-conference-type talent.

Kansas over Samford: Nervous time for the Jayhawks but Hunter Dickinson is reportedly close to playing.

Purdue over Montana State: A big win and a big exhale.

TCU over Utah State: Pressure defense is TCU’s weapon, along with relief that the Frogs aren’t playing Big 12 teams this week.

South Carolina over Oregon: Cliffhanger. Gamecocks have lots of fouls to give, in the effort to stop N’Faly Dante.

Enrique Freeman

Akron over Creighton: The Zips only won the MAC tournament because a Kent State player forgot the score, but they do have Enrique Freeman, who went from walk-on to MAC Player of the Year and Division I’s top rebounder.

Texas over Virginia: Max Abmas will be one of the few shotmakers on the floor.

Tennessee over St. Peter’s: They need to find Volunteers to help Dalton Knecht.

McNeese over Kansas: The Jayhawks keep reaching back to January and it’s not there. They’re also in Salt Lake City, not Allen Field House.

TCU over Purdue: Zack Edey is big, but not as big as the anvil on the Boilermakers’ back.

South Carolina over Akron: Lamont Paris got a nice contract as the second-best coach on campus.

Tennessee over Texas. Rick Barnes shows Texas fans what they lost when he left, as if they don’t already know.

McNeese over TCU: Will Wade, the former LSU coach who was fired in disgrace, was just ahead of his time. Besides, no one said he couldn’t coach.

Tennessee over South Carolina: They split wins on each other’s home court during the SEC grind.

Tennessee over McNeese: This team won at Kentucky, at Alabama, and at Wisconsin. Point guard Zakai Zeigler wasn’t around last year. He is now.

SEMIFINALS

Tennessee over Duke: A rematch of last year’s second round with the same result.

Auburn over Baylor: Tigers had the best 2-point field goal percentage in Division I and that, despite the 3-point fixation, is a big determinant.

AND THE WINNER IS

Auburn over Tennessee: It just means more (than anything except spring football). Auburn was the only team in KenPom.com that was in the Top Ten in offensive and defensive efficiency and also was 324th in tempo. If it doesn’t turn out this way, blame the decimal points, not me.