The Celtics have waited long enough
Despite Dallas' awesome 1-2 punch, look for Boston to complete its quest.
When last seen, the Dallas Mavericks were trashing the Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA’s Western Conference Final, and the Boston Celtics were patiently sweeping the Indiana Pacers in the East.
Dallas did its thing on May 30, Boston on May 27. Game 1 of the Finals is Thursday night. That’s six days off for the Mavericks and nine for the Celtics. Such a hiatus is an eraser to all the patterns that were built in the first three rounds. Maybe Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving won’t be human neutron bombs; maybe Al Horford will remember that he just turned 38 and won his first NCAA title at Florida when Dereck Lively, Dallas’ rookie center, was two. The quality of Game 1 might resemble October more than June.
Moreover, the Mavericks and Celtics will have unnatural rest even after Game 1. There’s two days off before Game 2 on Sunday. Then two more before Game 3 in Dallas on Wednesday. That’s beneficial to health but not to basketball flow. It is also part of the reason the last few Finals have been so mundane.
If greatness awaits us this time, the Celtics will have to provide it, and the Mavericks might well push them there. Boston’s .780 win percentage this season was the fifth-highest in its glorious history. It’s the fifth time in the past eight seasons that Boston has won at least 50 games. The Celtics’ point differential was 11.4 points, by far the best in the league, and they committed the fewest turnovers and second-fewest fouls. They brought the potential of humiliation to every game. On March 2 they tortured Golden State, 140-88. Said Steph Curry, “This is what we used to do to teams.”
Such grim efficiency often presages a championship, because nothing else will do, and for Boston it’s about time. Two years ago they lost the Finals to Golden State, in six games, and last year they lost Game 7 of the Eastern Finals to Miami, again at home, after they had wiped out an 0-3 series deficit. Jayson Tatum is in his sixth year (and is only 26) and Jaylen Brown is in his seventh year (and is only 27). Every night when they come to T.D. Garden they see the templates of Boston success, the endless championship banners above them. They know, all too well, that perennial runnersup are only remembered for their losses.
Boston is chasing its own heritage by using the highest-risk weapon possible. They hoist 42.5 three-point shots per game, easily a league high, but they also connect on 38.8 percent, ranking second. They will probably welcome Kristaps Porzingis back to the lineup, but the 7-foot-2 Latvian is more than happy to join the bomb squad. His size will be more valuable on defense.
Using the 3-pointer as a main course began with the Warriors, as you remember. But when the Warriors lost the 2016 Finals to Irving, LeBron James and Cleveland, they had only shot 31.5 threes per game during the season. Relying on the three is “just math,” according to coach Joe Mazzulla. Instead of reverting to convention, the Celtics picked up Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, who only shoots 4.7 times from deep but has the team’s best percentage (42.9). Derrick White’s continued emergence was manifested in his 39.6 shooting from deep. The Celtics have not been hurt a bit by trading Marcus Smart, at least not yet.
Will the Celtics be able to impede Doncic and Irving, maybe even put up a “yield” sign? Each scored 36 in the West clincher, so maybe not.But a better question arises on the other end of the floor. The Celtics only rank 14th in league assists. They’re more likely to turn it over to Tatum or Brown and get in position to return. So which one of Boston’s talented isolationists will Doncic guard? Or Irving? Lively is a defensive ace in the paint and, of course, made every shot he tried in the Minnesota series. Daniel Gafford is strong there, too. But the Celtics don’t need to challenge them. Their average shot this year was a 15-footer. The odds of Tatum and Brown having the same off-night are long.
Dallas actually took the second-most threes during the season. Since then, Tim Hardaway Jr. has receded deep into the Dallas bench, although Jason Kidd could retrieve him at any time. The Mavericks shredded the Timberwolves, who had the best defense in the NBA, but Minnesota was also a neophyte in the deep end of the playoffs, prone to fouls and anxiety.
This is where Holiday rises and it’s also why the Celtics got him in the first place, right before training camp. He is in his 14th season now and has played 84 postseason games, none bigger than the ones in 2021 when he was the final bridge between the Milwaukee Bucks and a championship. In one of those four-team monstrosity trades that look like Will Hunting’s blackboard, the Bucks dealt him to Portland, which then sent him to Boston for big man Robert Williams, swingman Malcolm Brogdon and two first-round picks. Without Holiday, the Bucks went from second to 13th in field goal percentage defense. In the East finals he made the keystone plays in the final ticks of three wins.
Still, none of this could matter if Doncic and Irving keep synching up. Few teams have ever had as clean a division of labor as Dallas does. Doncic and Irving supervise the basketball, P.J. Washington lurks in the corner for 3-pointers, Derrick Jones Jr. keeps the ball moving and takes whatever open shots present themselves, and the bigs compete like crazy, as Oklahoma City’s chastened Chet Holmgren can tell you. And Dallas has flexed its bench, too, with the useful, athletic Josh Green and the emerging scoring knack of Jaden Hardy.
You might have heard, especially if you’re a Celtic, that Dallas traveled a harder road to get here. All of Dallas’ playoff victims won over 50 regular season games. None of Boston’s did. The Celtics did lose home games to Miami and Cleveland, and a cloud of questions about their consistency and focus began to hover over the harbor. But a 12-2 playoff record, including no losses on the road, is a solid credential.
If Dallas could have carried the Minnesota vibe into the Finals a couple of days earlier, maybe we’d be looking at a classic series. Instead the Mavs have had a few days to lose their rhythm, and the Celtics have had a few days to gather their best punches for a fight that has loomed for years. It’s a match between a team that would really like to win and a team that feels as if it must. The guess here is that the Celtics, with their dreams just a few bothersome delays away, will waste little time.