The CFP contenders make their push to the Four-front

The playoff picture will clear up Saturday as Michigan and Georgia face their toughest games.

J.J. McCarthy

The last great college football regular season is roaring to the wire. What we will see in the next month should exhilarate us. What lies beyond, with a 12-team College Football Playoff replacing the 4-team format, should deflate us. 

There are those who might prefer a Michigan-Ohio State game with no greater consequence other than kneejerk hatred, but they’ll get over it when they see Wolverines and Buckeyes resting their best players in November in order to be healthy for the 12-team grind. Meanwhile, the rest of us will miss the weekly rush of watching teams answer, or shrink from, the imperative to win.

But that’s an issue for 2024. Here’s a look at the contenders and their chances to make what really will be the Final Four:.

MICHIGAN  (9-0)

Resume: The Wolverines haven’t scored fewer than 30 points and haven’t allowed more than 13 in any game. Their closest game was 31-7 over Rutgers. Opponents have scored six touchdowns, total. Michigan’s defense alone has scored four. J.J. McCarthy is the highest-rated passer in the country, according to Pro Football Focus. But the Wolverines have only proven they can punch down. They haven’t played a ranked team all season.

Schedule: That changes Saturday with a trip to Penn State, and then there is the Harbageddon game at home against the Buckeyes on Nov. 25, along with a Big 10 championship game that should be a formality. For competition’s sake, they should make the East winner play a West Division All-Star team.

Path. Win them all and Michigan has nothing to worry about. Lose one and they run the risk of losing a tiebreaker and not playing in the Big Ten title game (which will probably come down to  schedule-of-strength vs Big Ten West teams). One suspects that the schedule, and the sign-stealing affair, will motivate the committee to snub Michigan if at all possible.

GEORGIA  (9-0)

Resume: Don’t listen to the veterinarian. Apparently cupcakes are good for Bulldogs. Georgia feasted on UT Martin, Ball State and UAB in the non-conference. It had to run down South Carolina, Auburn and Missouri after lagging in those first halves. But when challenged by Kentuccky, the Bulldogs rolled, 51-13.

Schedule: Now comes the hard chewing. Ole Miss brings its formidable offense to Athens on Saturday. Then comes a trip to Tennessee. The final game against Georgia Tech won’t be as easy as usual. The SEC championship game probably would be against Alabama, as it should be.

Path: Obviously the Bulldogs will have a chance to win a third consecutive championship if they dodge the upset. A close loss to Alabama might not bar them, either, although a once-beaten Texas team, which beat Alabama, would argue.

OHIO STATE (9–0)

Resume: The Buckeyes take a little longer to get there than Michigan does. They trailed Rutgers at halftime Saturday. But they did win at Notre Dame, no matter how strangely, and they shut down Penn State impressively at home. Marvin Harrison II is the checkmate player no matter the opponent.

Schedule: Two home games with Michigan State and Minnesota precede the trip North, which brings back memories of an item that used to be in the Ohio State gift shop. It was a toilet seat with the slogan: “Flush hard, it’s a long way to Ann Arbor.” But to win that game, Kyle McCord has to be more than a custodial quarterback.

Path: A loss to Michigan wouldn’t necessarily eliminate the Buckeyes, depending on how it comes down. But they would breathe easier if only one SEC team qualifies.

FLORIDA STATE (9-0)

Resume: The Seminoles haven’t lost since Oct. 15, 2022 and their 45-24 destruction of LSU on Sept. 2 should still resonate. Their other ranked win is against Duke, although winning at Clemson is nothing to dismiss. That was in overtime, and the Seminoles only won at Boston College by two. Jordan Travis isn’t a Heisman favorite but he’s played as well as any quarterback.

Schedule: A home win over Miami Saturday should take them into the ACC title game undefeated, probably against a surging Louisville team, for whom Travis once played. The final two are North Alabama and Florida.

Path: FSU needs to win out, or hope that somebody beats Alabama and Texas.

OREGON (8-1)

Resume: Nobody is playing better than the Ducks at the moment. They have five games of 42 points or more, and beat ranked teams Colorado and Utah by a total of 77-12. Bo Nix is completing 78.1 percent of his throws, and the Ducks lead the country in scoring and are in the top 20 in scoring defense, rushing, rushing defense, total offense and total defense, and of course they’re the unquestioned No. 1 when it comes to tacky uniforms.

Schedule: Not as hard as it once looked. They have USC at home Saturday, go to Arizona State and play Oregon State at home. Three wins, and they’re in the Pac-12 title game, probably against Washington, whom they outplayed in Seattle in a 3-point loss brought on by the fourth-down misadventures of coach Dan Lanning.

Path: If they stay this hot, it will be hard to find four teams more deserving.

TEXAS (8-1)

Resume: A win at Alabama is heavy currency when the Longhorns are compared to other one-loss teams. They also can boast ranked wins over Kansas and Kansas State. The only loss was in the last minute to Oklahoma.  They also survived the loss to quarterback Quinn Ewers, who returns this week at TCU.

Schedule: Texas will be favored to become 11-1, with trips to TCU and Iowa State and a home finale with Texas Tech. The Big 12 championship game will be dicey, though, if it’s against Oklahoma State and its rampaging offense.

Path: Whatever happens to Texas, provided they win out, will be the most controversial aspect of Selection Day. Again, even though it was Sept. 2 and the Crimson Tide hadn’t sorted itself out yet, that 34-24 win in Tuscaloosa counts.

WASHINGTON (9-0)

Resume: Washington has a Heisman Trophy candidate in Michael Penix and a glitzy win over Oregon, But it hasn’t played as well since then, with tough wins over Arizona State and Stanford. The defense has given up 30-plus points four times. Dillon Johnson’s running, if it continues, could allow the Huskies to outscore anybody they play.

Schedule: By the time the regular season is over, Washington will have played four ranked teams. Utah will be a tough nut in Seattle on Saturday, and then the Huskies have to go to Oregon State, currently ranked 12th. Get through that and Washington will likely face an Oregon rematch in the conference championship. So if they go 12-1 they will have earned it.

Path: If they lose in Las Vegas, forget it. If they lose now and win in Las Vegas, they will base their case on Pac-12 strength and two wins over Oregon. Tough argument to make.

ALABAMA (8-1)

Resume: The Crimson Tide regrouped after the loss to Texas and got prestige wins over Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee, along with a tough win at Texas A&M. The defense still isn’t vintage, but Jalen Millroe’s rise at quarterback has kept Alabama viable.

Schedule: A trip to Kentucky, a home game against Chattanooga and an Iron Bowl date at Auburn should be no problem. After that it’s Georgia in the SEC championship, in a likely winner-take-all. Nick Saban has pulled that exact upset before. .

Path: An 12-1 ‘Bama squad with wins over Georgia, Misissippi and LSU would be hard to ignore under any circumstances. 

MISSISSIPPI (8-1)

Resume: The Rebels beat Tulane and LSU when both were ranked and have won four one-score games in their conference. They lost by two touchdowns at Alabama. Passer Jaxson Dart, runner Quinshon Judkins and catcher Tre Harris are dangerous, especially at winning time.

Schedule: Ole Miss couldn’t ask for a better opportunity than Saturday, when it plays at Georgia. It finishes up with Louisiana-Monroe and a trip to Mississippi State.

Path: The problem is that the Rebels won’t be able to make their closing argument in the title game, because they lost to ‘Bama. Lots of dominos will have to fly off the table to get Mississippi into the picture.

PENN STATE (8-1)

Resume: The Nittany Lions are great in rehearsal, not so good in closeup. Last week they held Maryland to four yards rushing. They scored 31 on Iowa, a team that hasn’t let anyone else score 17, and also the only ranked team they’ve beaten. And then they were snuffed, 20-12, at Ohio State. They haven’t lost to anyone except Michigan or Ohio State since the 2021 Outback Bowl loss. Here they are again, leading the nation in sacks and rushing defense, with only one route to happiness.

Schedule: Nothing matters but Saturday’s home game against Michigan. A win there, and the Lions can think about a home game against Rutgers, which could be tricky, and a trip to Michigan State.

Path: It’s very well-marked. Beat Michigan, hope Michigan beats Ohio State, and hope for tiebreaker luck that would give them a shot at a Big 10 title game. A win there would probably get the job done.

PREDICTION:

Michigan, Georgia, Florida State, Oregon.