Without big-time closers, welcome to a wide-open playoff

The baseball postseaon begins Tuesday with potential for late-inning carnage.

Devin Williams

It’s October, and you can sleep with both eyes closed. Mariano Rivera doesn’t live here anymore.

Neither do Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Sparky Lyle, Jeff Reardon,, Brad Lidge, Randy Myers or Troy Percival.

They were the closers who walked to the mound like 2 a.m. bouncers. You don’t have to go home, they said, but you can’t stay here and, by the way, leave the bat.

They lived inside the minds of the managers in the postseason. The first seven innings were structured to avoid seeing them in the last two.

This is not to say that all world champions had legendary closers. Edward Mujica, Braden Looper, Daniel Hudson, Keith Foulke, Koji Uehara, Bobby Jenks and Brian Wilson have all handled the ninth inning for Series winners in this decade. Arizona, in 2001, won despite its closer, Byung-Hyun Kim. The 2020 Dodgers  and 2018 Red Sox leaned on starters to handle the ninth, and beyond. The Giants nailed down the 2014 World Serie with a special guest appearance from Madison Bumgarner.

But the reason the 2023 tournament will be so fascinatingly irrational is that nobody has a lock-cinch bullpen. Some are better than others, yes, but a seventh-inning lead is unsafe at any velocity.

Fourteen relievers had 29 saves this season. Only four are involved in the playoffs: Toronto’s Jordan Romano (36 saves in 40 chances), Milwaukee’s Devin Williams (36 in 40), Atlanta’s Raisel Iglesias (33 in 37) and Houston’s Ryan Pressly (31 in 37).

The most feared reliever throughout the season was Felix Bautista of Baltimore, who gave up only 31 hits in 60 innings.He had 33 saves in 39 opportunities. But he’s out with a bad shoulder. Mike Elias abandoned all general manager happy talk when he found out. “We’re going to miss the hell out of that guy,” he said, speaking for himself, not hitters.

Emanuel Clase of Cleveland was the leader in saves with 44, but he also blew 12. No one else had more than 40.

The change in bullpen usage from 15 years ago is notable. This year, the Giants’ bullpen worked 705 and one-third innings. Six teams turned in 650 or more. The Phillies were 30th in the 30-team game with 543 ⅓.

In 2008 nobody worked more than 572. ⅔ innings (Texas) and the Angels, who won 100 games, worked 439 ⅓.

The rule of thumb is the best bullpens are the ones you don’t see as much. Of the nine most rested bullpens in the game, seven are on playoff teams. And of the 11 highest-ranked bullpens in WHIP (walks and hits, per innings pitched), nine are on playoff teams.

That is why there is so much concern in Atlanta and Los Angeles, the top-ranked National League teams, over their depleted starting rotations, and why Milwaukee, the N.L. Central champ which boasts Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta in the rotation, might be a very live underdog.

A bullpen-by-bullpen look at the upcoming carnage:

American League 

Baltimore: With Bautista out, Yennier Cano fires the loudest shots, but he gave up a .257 average in September. Michael Baumann is a durable swingman who is on his game, as is Bryan Baker. Danny Coulombe and rookie DL Hall are the primary lefties. A wild-card is Tyler Wells, who was in the rotation, got demoted to Triple-A, and came back for four perfect bullpen innings last month. Again, long outings by the starters will be helpful, as will the first-round bye.

Tampa Bay: The Rays’ bullpen is constantly shifting his shape, but the primary closer is Peter Fairbanks, who had 25 during the season. Lefty Jake Diekman and Robert Stephenson has been the swing-and-miss specialists down the stretch. Diekman gave up two hits in 11 ½ September innings. Colin Poche, another lefty, gave up a .170 average last month. But will Kevin Cash use them all up before a possible World Series?

Toronto: The Jays brought in Jordan Hicks and Genesis Cabrera to reinforce the bridge to Romano, who gave up two runs in 12 ⅓ September innings. They also got a boost from 35-year-old Jay Jackson, who had a 0.910 WHIP in 25 games, but mysteriously designated him for assignment over the weekend. Tim Mayza is the key lefthander. Trevor Richards struck out 105 during the season but got roughed up late. Eric Swanson will see a lot of work. Again, the Jays’ best bet is a lot of innings from starters Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt.

Minnesota: The Twins’ bullpen might be falling into place just in time for the Toronto series. Rookie Kody Funderburk, a lefty, has struck out 13 in 8 ⅔ September innings. In the back, Jhoan Duran and Emilio Pagan are in good form. Veteran lefty Caleb Thielbar will get plenty of work, as will Griffin Jax. We’ll see if Chris Paddack, the former Padre prospect, will get some strikeout opportunities.

Houston: The 2022 champs somehow pulled out an A.L. West title after a year that featured inconsistency everywhere but the bullpen. Hector Neris and Bryan Abreu have been outstanding funnels to closer Pressly. In September, opponents had a .143 on-base percentage against Neris, .114 against Abreu, and .196 against Phil Maton. Rafael Montero and Kendall Graveman didn’t end the season well, but lefty Bennett Sousa didn’t give up a September hit in 16 at-bats. Sousa has been waived by Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Detroit this year alone. Dusty Baker could also swing Hunter Brown into the mix, after his late struggles in the rotation.

Texas: Will Smith has inherited 27 runners this season and only two have scored. He’s the closer. Behind him, who knows? Starter Andrew Heaney has been dissipated to help the pen at times. Jose Leclerc has been hot lately, but Josh Sborz, Jonathan Hernandez, Brock Burke and lefty Cody Bradford are flip-a-coin guys. Aroldis Chapman has his bumpy stretches, still lives in the land of triple-digit velocity. The Rangers need him to thrive because if they get good relief, they have everything else to win it all.

National League

Atlanta: The Braves have the third best bullpen WHIP in the National League but they don’t implant much fear. Iglesias has had a rough September, and lefty A.J. Minter has been walking people. Pierce Johnson, whom they got from Colorado, has revitalized his career and Joe Jimenez has been hot lately. Kyle Wright, the only 20-game winner in the league last year, is healthy again and has looked good, but Brian Snitker might need him in the rotation. Michael Tonkin has been a useful innings-eater. He gets 5.3 per outs per appearance, by far the most of any reliever. Veterans Brad Hand and Kirby Yates won’t be spooked by playoff pressure,

Philadelphia: Last year this bullpen was a stain and then it became detergent in the playoffs. This year’s is similar, only with different names. Jeff Hoffman, a former first round pick of Toronto, has been hard to hit all year, and he, Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto have sub-1.00 WHIPs in September. Craig Kimbrel has had a few longball problems, but he’ll be in the midst of everything. Lefty Jose Alvarado had 18 strikeouts in 11 ½ innings last month. Up from nowhere is Orion Kerkering, who has struck out six in a three-inning audition. He struck out 79 in 53 2/3 innings while pitching in four different minor leagues this year. The Phillies will play Miami in the din of Citizens Bank Park which, as one manager told Phillies’ skipper Rob Thomson, was “four hours of hell” during last year’s playoffs.

Miami:  Tanner Scott cut two full runs off his 2022 ERA this year and pitched 78 innings with 53 hits and 108 strikeouts. He also saved nine games in September as the Marlins made a rush to the third wild card spot. The 29-year-old ex-Oriole needs a little help, though. Lefthander Andrew Nardi was a quality setup man all year, and 39-year-old David Robertson was a late arrival. Lefty Stephen Okert, A.J. Puk and JT Chargois have been bruised lately. Bryan Hoeing yielded five home runs in September alone. The Marlins are 12th in N.L. bullpen WHIP, and manager Scott Schumaker would rather leave his phone alone.

Milwaukee: Devin Williams is the most feared reliever in the N.L. playoffs. Over four years he has struck out 14.2 batters every nine innings, often with his hellish changeup. Williams has given up three hits in 9 ⅓ September innings, with five saves. Abner Uribe threw a 103 mph pitch that was the fastest in club history. He, Joel Payamps. Elvis Peguero and Bryse Wilson will try to set up Williams. Andrew Chafin will hunt lefthanded hitters. And Julio Tehran is convincingly imitating a bullpen guy after a long career as a starter. We also know why the Brewers unloaded Josh Hader to San Diego last summer. Hader maintained that he shouldn’t be asked to get more than three outs per outing, even as the Padres were mathematically alive.

Los Angeles: Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol are the men to see. Graterol has given up two hits in 10 ½ September innings. Shelby Miller has rehabbed his career, and Ryan Brasier didn’t give up a September run. It was clear last year that Phillips should have been the closer, and this year he had an 0.82 WHIP with 24 saves. And there’s always a spot for Caleb Ferguson or Joe Kelly in the middle innings. It’s shaky on paper, but the Dodgers survive. They are the snake that keeps hissing long after you cut him in half.

Arizona: The Diamondbacks got Paul Sewald from Seattle at the trade deadline.They’re in the playoffs and Seattle isn’t. Sewald cashed 12 of his 14 save chances with Arizona, including five in his first five September outings. Another key is Kevin Ginkel, who doubled his appearances (30 to 60) and became a solid setup man. Rookie lefty Andrew Saalfrank appeared 10 times and hasn’t given up a run yet, maybe because his routine of Red Bull in the fifth inning and Rice Krispies in the fifth inning. Bryce Jarvis, another rookie, has been almost as effective, and Joe Mantiply has given up one home run in 22 August-September starts. This group has few reference points to fall back on, but also nothing to lose.

San Diego: Ah, never mind.