Baseball studies another way to handcuff managers

Everybody wants pitchers to go six or more innings, but must MLB really codify it?

Justin Verlander

Rob Manfred continues to turn Major League Baseball into a Homeowners’ Association. The latest addition to the rules and regulations, to be road-tested in Triple-A next year, is to force starting pitchers to go six innings.

What’s wrong with that, you ask? After all, we’ve been complaining about the stamina gap for years now. In 2024 only 17 starters are averaging more than six innings (or 18 outs) per start, with Seattle’s Logan Gilbert and Kansas City’s Seth Lugo the leaders at 6.4. Only five years ago there were 29 who got through six, led by Houston’s Justin Verlander at 6.6.

No team has reached the six-inning frontier since Cleveland in 2018 (6.1). Twenty seasons ago, 10 teams got there, with Oakland’s starters at 6.4.

A “six-inning pitcher” was once a cruel epithet. Now it’s a merit badge. All those figures are diluted by the “bullpen games,” in which the “opener” goes one inning and is quickly rescued by another reliever, until seven guys have gone nine innings. That’s why teams need 13 pitchers, when they once were fine with nine, and why equipment managers work overtime to find clubhouse nameplates for all these new arms. It’s an ugly feature of today’s game and it removes the mythic starting pitcher from the equation. After all, he stands literally in the middle of everything, and nothing happens until he starts his motion. Except for rookie Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, few pitchers sell tickets, and clubs enjoy devaluing their starters because it helps them justify shortchanging them. Blake Snell, the reigning N.L. Cy Young winner and the author of a no-hitter, did not sign with the Giants until the end of spring training, and then only for one year.

The six-inning requirement does have exceptions. The starter can be removed if he gives up four or more earned runs or if he reaches 100 pitches, or if he’s hurt. No one will be stranded on the mound with inferior stuff or results.

In theory, this is all fine. Commissioner Manfred is spending some of the capital he gained with the success of his speed-up rules. He did away with infield shifts and, contrary to predictions, the offenses didn’t run rampant. He made the designated hitter universal and allowed N.L. pitchers to abandon the charade.

He cheapened the stolen base with the new My Pillow bases and the limit on pickoff attempts. He used the ghost runner to prevent 16-inning games that vaporize the bullpen. Not all the changes have been smooth, but Manfred would rather address problems than complain about them, which makes him distinctive among all human beings in all endeavors.

So why are we so uneasy with this? After all, baseball lowered the mound after the 1968 season and adopted the DH before the 1972 season, and the republic survived.

But the six-inning requirement just seems like a big-government intrusion, another handcuff on a manager’s wrist.

For one thing, the sixth inning will be more of a checkered flag than it is now. Pitchers will train themselves to pitch through the sixth and no longer. John Lowe, the Hall of Fame baseball writer who invented the quality start and defined it as six innings with three earned runs or fewer, will see his handiwork enshrined. Except that Lowe’s quality start was the minimum required. It wasn’t supposed to eclipse the dream of a complete game, of which there have been only 25 in MLB this season.

Clayton Kershaw had a shoulder operation and didn’t make his 2024 debut until July 25, against the Giants. The Dodgers trotted him out there for four innings, and Kershaw got through them with 72 pitches. The proposed rule would have forced Dave Roberts to stretch out Kershaw in his first game, which would have been unnecessarily dangerous. “Forced” is the key word. Managers have enough restraints already.

Or there might be a rambunctious rookie who breaks into the big leagues and goes full bore through the fourth inning. Then he hits a wall….but he’s only thrown 65 pitches. Under these guidelines, both he and the manager would have to close their eyes and hang on. Sure, there can be relief if the starter gives up that fourth run, but let’s say the game is 3-3 with two on and one out in the sixth, and you’re paying a “high leverage” reliever a lot of money to handle problems like this, and yet he’s marooned in the bullpen until his team has lost the lead. That’s just over-regulation.

Or let’s say you’re Stephen Vogt, manager of the Guardians, and you’re playing the Yankees, and it’s the sixth inning, two out, man on second in a 2-2 game. Aaron Judge is the hitter. Ben Lively is your pitcher. Lively is still at the 80-pitch mark, but he’s given up some loud fouls and is obviously playing with fiery percentages if he’s allowed to face Judge. Besides, Cade Smith is warming up and he’s inherited 26 runners and only one of them has scored. What’s the move? Under the six-inning rule, there is no move. Lively stays in, and one of Cleveland’s most legitimate weapons gets holstered.

Trends come and go in baseball. They should be allowed to do so organically. Yes, the marginalization of the starting pitcher is a problem. Perhaps the six-inning limit will encourage such pitchers to shelve the swing-and-miss obsession, to learn how to change speeds and coax soft ground-ball contact and pitch more efficiently. It might even become possible to win games without attending off-season velocity mills like DriveLine, and alleviate the industry-wide torture of elbow ligaments. But that process will take a generation to undo, and it all starts at the youth levels, where Travel Ball and the various scouting showcases have created a system that makes a 93-mph pitcher into a finesse guy.

Besides, Manfred’s initial victories might deserve some further review. There’s a suspicion that pitching injuries have been accelerated by the pitch clocks, which are there to ensure games that end well before sixth-grade bedtime. Could be an excuse, could be a myth. Also could be worth a study.

Anything that restores the primacy of the pitcher is good. But anything that radically removes strategy is an overreach. It’s a tradition to have the commissioner’s signature on the baseball itself, but it wasn’t designed to carry Rob Manfred’s thumbprint.